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基于SEIRS模型的机场飞行区人为风险传染过程研究

  

  1. 武汉理工大学 管理学院，湖北 武汉 430070
  • 出版日期:2016-12-31 发布日期:2017-02-22
  • 作者简介:唐辛欣（1987-），女，湖北省人，博士研究生，主要研究方向为风险预警管理、人力资源管理.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71271163）

Infection Process of Airport Flight Area Human Risk Based on SEIRS Epidemic Disease Model

  1. School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070,China
  • Online:2016-12-31 Published:2017-02-22

摘要：

为更科学合理地结合风险演化规律和传染过程进行风险管控，构建了基于SEIRS（susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible，易感群体-潜伏群体-感染群体-免疫群体-易感群体）传染病模型的机场飞行区人为风险传染过程模型，界定了模型的假设条件，并分析了模型的平衡点及稳定性，模型在平衡点均为渐进稳定的。运用Matlab对模型进行模拟仿真，风险传染初期、中期和末期潜伏群体、感染群体和免疫群体最终均趋于零平衡。其中潜伏群体呈较为平滑的递减趋势，感染群体在急速减少后逐渐趋于零平衡，免疫群体均短期内快速增长后迅速回落。不同阶段各群体的变化率有显著区别。末期潜伏群体在急速减少后呈缓慢上升趋势,最终趋于零平衡。结论为风险管控不同阶段的策略重点提供了理论依据。

关键词: 人为风险, 风险传染, 机场飞行区, 传染病模型

Abstract:

Infectious process model of airport flight area human risk is constructed based on SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) epidemic disease model for risk management and control in a more scientific and rational way. The assumptions of the model are defined. The equilibrium point and stability of the model are analyzed. The model is asymptotically stable at the equilibrium point. Model simulation results by Matlab software shows that latent group, infected group and immune group all finally tend to zero balance no matter in the early stage, the middle stage or the late stage of the risk of infection. Latent group shows a relatively smooth decreasing trend. Infected group tends to zero balance after rapid decline. Immune population has a rapid growth in the short term after the rapid decline. There is a significant difference in the rate of change of different groups at different stages. Latent group shows a slow upward trend till zero balance after the rapid decline in the last stage. The conclusion provides the theoretical basis for the strategic focus of different stages of risk management and control.

Key words: human risk, risk infection, airport flight area, epidemic disease model