A Research on the Enterprise's Decision-making of Safety Input Based on the Prospect Theory

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-4076

Abstract

Abstract: Enterprise's safety input decision-making is the uncertainty decision making by limited rational people. First, based on prospect theory, the value function and decision weights function are built, and the prospect values of different decisions are calculated. Then, combining with the numerical simulation results of Matlab software, the influence of reference point, risk preference (avoidance), risk attitude to enterprise's safety input decision-making are analyzed. The results show that the reasons why enterprises choose safety violation programs is closely related to their reference point, security supervision and their own risk appetite (circumvention), risk attitude and so on when they are selected in safety input decision. Finally, the countermeasures are provided to promote enterprises to take safety compliance program rather than safety violation program.

Key words: safety input, decision-making behavior, the Prospect Theory, parameter analysis

CLC Number:

C939

LIU Suxia, XU Jianfei. A Research on the Enterprise's Decision-making of Safety Input Based on the Prospect Theory[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2017, 20(5): 45-50.

References

[1] 袁显平, 严永胜, 张金锁. 我国煤矿矿难研究综述[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2014, 24(8): 132-138.
YUAN Xianping, YAN Yongsheng, ZHANG Jinsuo. A summary of coal mine mines in china [J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Science, 2014, 24(8): 132-138.
[2] 任海芝, 陈玉琴, 程恋军. 煤炭企业安全投入规模与投入结构优化研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2014, 24(8): 3-8.
REN Haizhi, CHEN Yuqin, CHENG Lianjun. Study on safety investment scale and investment structure optimization of coal enterprises [J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Science, 2014, 24(8): 3-8.
[3] 陆玉梅, 梅强. 中小企业的安全投入行为研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2008, 18(11): 60-64.
LU Yumei, MEI Qiang. Research on safety investment behavior of small and medium-sized enterprises[J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Science, 2008, 18(11): 60-64.
[4] 梁瑞, 郭洪燕, 郭晓璐. 安全投入模型的研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2011, 21(1): 32-36.
LIANG Rui, GUO Hongyan, GUO Xiaolu. Research on safety input model[J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Science, 2011, 21(1): 32-36.
[5] TAPPURA S, SIEVANEN M, HEIKKILA J, et al. A management accounting perspective on safety [J]. Safety Science, 2015, 71: 151-159.
[6] ALE B J M, HARTFORD D N D, SLATER D. ALARP and CBA all in the same game [J]. Safety Science, 2015, 76: 90-100.
[7] ABRAHAMSEN E B, ASCHE F. On how access to an insurance market affects investments in safety measures, based on the expected utility theory [J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2011, 96(3): 361-364.
[8] 熊卫. 期望效用理论的两个悖论及其消解——兼谈决策论的发展[1] 现代哲学, 2013(5):82 -86.
XIONG Wei. Two paradoxes of expeetation utility theory and its resolution-also on the development of decision theory[J]. Modern Philosophy, 2013(5):82-86.
[9] KAHNEMAN D, TVERSKY A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk [J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2): 263-291.
[10] 张波, 隽志才, 倪安宁. 基于累积前景理论的动态交通流演化博弈模型[J]. 管理工程学报, 2014, 28(3): 164-173.
ZHANG Bo, JUN Zhicai, NI Anning. Dynamic game model of dynamic traffic flow based on cumulative foreground theory [J]. Journal of Management Engineering, 2014, 28(3): 164-173.
[11] 徐红利, 周晶, 徐薇. 基于累积前景理论的随机网络用户均衡模型[J]. 管理科学学报, 2011, 14(7): 1-6.
XU Hongli, ZHOU Jing, XU Wei. Stochastic network user equilibrium model based on cumulative foreground theory[J]. Journal of Management Science, 2011, 14(7): 1-6.
[12] 张峥, 徐信忠. 行为金融学研究综述[J]. 管理世界, 2006(9): 155-167.
ZHANG Zheng, XU Xinzhong. A review of behavioral finance research[J]. Manage the World, 2006(9): 155-167.
[13] TVERSKY A, KAHNEMAN D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of certainty [J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4): 297-323.