A Critical Chain Project Duration Risk Evaluation Based on Grey Clustering Method

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3091

Abstract

Abstract: Duration uncertainty, resource conflict and other issues make project schedule management more complex. In order to effectively identify the duration risk, based on the gray critical chain method, the consistency index is used to make a gray estimation of the duration and the uncertainty factors such as resource stress, process complexity, work flexibility, risk preference and environmental uncertainty are fully considered. Then the duration risk evaluation is carried out by using the clustering coefficient determined based on the gray clustering evaluation model of the triangular whitening weight function. Finally, it is applied into a practical case to identify the processes with high duration risk and reduce the delay risk to prove the effectiveness and practicability of proposed method.

Key words: critical chain, duration risk, gray clustering method, triangular whitenization weight function

CLC Number:

LI Kang, XU Haiyan, CHEN Hao. A Critical Chain Project Duration Risk Evaluation Based on Grey Clustering Method[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2017, 20(4): 57-64.

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