Impact of Guangdong Province's Logistics on Its Export under the Background of the Belt and Road Initiative-an Empirical Study based on the Gravity Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-1289

Abstract

Abstract: The Belt and Road initiative creates development opportunities for export. As there is a strong relationship between international trade and logistics, the impact of logistics on export under the new background is studied to find ways of promoting Guangdong Province's export by improving logistics. An augmented Gravity Model is built by regarding the Belt and Road initiative as a dummy variable and adding variables representing Guangdong Province's logistics to the Gravity Model. Generalized Least Square method is used to make regression analysis for these variables, and the regression shows that enhancing Guangdong Province's logistics can lower export barriers caused by distance, and boost the positive effects generated by APEC and the Belt and Road initiative. Specifically, if the port efficiency and road efficiency is improved respectively by 10%, the export volumes will increase by 11.4% and 5.2%. So it is concluded that Guangdong Province can boost export by putting more effort in improving port and road efficiency.

Key words: the Belt and Road, logistics, export trade, Gravity Model of Trade, Guangdong Province

CLC Number:

F752.8

WANG Aihu, WANG Mengyao, HE Yuyan. Impact of Guangdong Province's Logistics on Its Export under the Background of the Belt and Road Initiative-an Empirical Study based on the Gravity Model[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2018, 21(2): 1-8.

References

[1] MARTÍ L, PUERTAS R, GARCÍA L. The importance of the logistics performance index in international trade[J]. Applied Economics, 2014, 46(24):2982-2992.
[2] LIMÃO N, VENABLES A J. Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, transport costs, and trade[J]. World Bank Economic Review, 2001, 15(3):451-479.
[3] ANDERSON J E, WINCOOP E V. Trade costs[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 2004, 42(3):691-751.
[4] BOUGHEAS S, DEMETRIADES P O, MORGENROTH E L W. Infrastructure, transport costs and trade[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1996, 47(1):169-189.
[5] BENSASSI S, MÁRQUEZ-RAMOS L, MARTÍNEZ-ZARZOSO I, et al. Relationship between logistics infrastructure and trade:Evidence from Spanish regional exports[J]. Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice, 2015, 72(72):47-61.
[6] COŞAR A K, DEMIR B. Domestic road infrastructure and international trade:Evidence from Turkey[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2016, 118:232-244.
[7] CIŻKOWICZ P, RZOŃCA A, UMIŃSKI S. The determinants of regional exports in Poland-a panel data analysis[J]. Post-Communist Economies, 2013, 25(2):206-224.
[8] ARTUC E, IOOTTY M, PIRLEA A F. Export performance and geography in Croatia[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2014.
[9] ALBARRAN P, CARRASCO R, HOLL A. Domestic transport infrastructure and firms' export market participation[J]. Small Business Economics, 2013, 40(4):879-898.
[10] CLARK X, DOLLAR D, MICCO A. Port efficiency, maritime transport costs, and bilateral trade[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2004, 75(2):417-450.
[11] WILSON J S, MANN C L, OTSUKI T. Assessing the benefits of trade facilitation:A global perspective[J]. World Economy, 2010, 28(6):841-871.
[12] BLONIGEN B A, WILSON W W. Port efficiency and trade flows[J]. Review of International Economics, 2008, 16(1):21-36.
[13] 许利枝, 方述诚, 汪寿阳. 中国运输成本和效率对出口贸易影响的实证研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(5):1057-1067.XU Lizhi, FANG Shucheng, WANG Shouyang. Analysis on transport costs and China's exports[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2012, 32(5):1057-1067.
[14] FEENSTRA R C, MA H. Trade facilitation and the extensive margin of exports[J]. Japanese Economic Review, 2014, 65(2):158-177.
[15] 庄丽娟, 姜元武, 刘娜. 广东省与东盟农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2007(6):81-86.ZHUANG Lijuan, JIANG Yuanwu, LIU Na. Research on the trade flow and trade potentiality of agricultural products between Guang-dong Province and ASEAN-Based on Gravity Model[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2007(6):81-86.
[16] 林吉双, 陈娜娜. 广东省出口贸易影响因素的实证分析[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2008, 24(9):20-24.LIN Jishuang, CHEN Nana. Empirical analysis of influencing factors for export trade in Guangdong province[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2008, 24(9):20-24.
[17] 张萍. 广东外贸增长方式转变的特征及其影响因素[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2010(5):31-36.ZHANG Ping. On the transformation of foreign trade growth mode in Guangdong province[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2010(5):31-36.
[18] 高秀丽, 孟飞荣. 广东省对外贸易与国际物流关系的实证研究[J]. 科技管理研究, 2012, 32(21):86-90.GAO Xiuli, MENG Feirong. Empirical analysis on relationship between Guangdong foreign trade and international logistics[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2012, 32(21):86-90.
[19] TSEKERIS T. Domestic transport effects on regional export trade in Greece[J]. Research in Transportation Economics, 2016, 61:2-14.
[20] 王爱虎, 匡桂华. 中国沿海集装箱港口群体系结构演化与竞争态势[J]. 经济地理, 2014, 34(06):92-99.WANG Aihu, KUANG Guihua. The evolution and competition situation of container port cluster system in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(06):92-99.