考虑自然退化与冲击的风电机可靠性评估与预防维护策略研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2023.03.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 风电机可靠性同时受自然退化与外部冲击的影响，马尔可夫链方法常被用作零部件自然退化过程的建模。现有的相关研究忽视了外部冲击对退化的影响，故运用改进的马尔可夫链方法对部件的退化过程进行建模，提出一种改进的转移概率矩阵描述外部冲击对退化的影响，同时运用齐次泊松过程描述随机冲击过程。在此基础上，进行部件可靠性建模，研究预防维护时刻，构建预防维护策略的收益模型。最后，以风电机中的关键部件发电机为例，验证所提出的同时考虑自然退化与外部冲击的马尔可夫链建模方法的有效性以及预防维护策略的经济性。

关键词: 随机冲击, 马尔可夫链, 可靠性, 预防维护

Abstract: The reliability of wind turbines is influenced by both natural degradation and external shocks. The Markov chain method is often used to model the natural degradation process of components. The existing related studies ignore the impact of external shocks on degradation, therefore, an improved Markov chain method is used to model the degradation process of components. An improved transition probability matrix is also proposed to describe the influence of external shocks on degradation, and a homogeneous Poisson process is used to describe the random shock process. On this basis, component reliability modeling is conducted, while a revenue model of preventive maintenance strategies is established with the preventive maintenance time being studied. Finally, using a key component of a wind turbine, i.e. the generator, as an example, the effectiveness of the proposed Markov chain modeling method, which considers both natural degradation and external shocks, as well as the economy of the preventive maintenance strategy is verified.

Key words: random shocks, Markov chain, reliability, preventive maintenance

中图分类号:

TP16

李海燕, 李亚平, 韩腾飞. 考虑自然退化与冲击的风电机可靠性评估与预防维护策略研究[J]. 工业工程, 2023, 26(3): 67-74.

LI Haiyan, LI Yaping, HAN Tengfei. A Reliability Assessment and Preventive Maintenance Strategy of Wind Turbines Considering Natural Degradation and Shocks[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2023, 26(3): 67-74.

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