CVaR准则下季节性产品市场运作策略

工业工程 ›› 2012, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (5): 8-14.

CVaR准则下季节性产品市场运作策略

李绩才(1980-)，男，安徽省人，讲师，博士研究生，主要研究方向为物流与供应链管理、风险管理等.

1.浙江师范大学行知学院，浙江金华 321004；2.华南理工大学工商管理学院，广东广州 510641

出版日期:2012-10-31 发布日期:2012-11-15
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971041,71131003);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(Y6110095);广东省自然科学基金资助项目(10151064101000003);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(10YJC630277);浙江师范大学青年基金资助项目(KJ20100026)

On the Optimal Marketing Strategy for Seasonal Products under the CVaR Criterion

1.Xing zhi college, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China, 2.School of Business Administration, South China Univenity of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China

Online:2012-10-31 Published:2012-11-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究了风险规避型零售商在面对季节性产品随机市场需求受销售价格和广告费用共同影响时的最优运作策略。通过乘法需求形式将销售价格、广告费用对需求的影响引入报童问题中，以CVaR作为风险度量准则，建立了风险规避型零售商销售价格、广告费用及订货量联合决策的随机模型；并进一步揭示了零售商的风险规避程度对其最优运作策略的影响；通过数值实例对模型的求解过程和理论结果进行了验证分析。研究结果为季节性产品零售商市场运作策略的制定提供了一定的参考。

关键词: 报童模型, 条件风险值（CVaR）, 市场销售

Abstract: The traditional Newsvendor problem is based upon risk neutrality with an objective of maximizing the expected profit or minimizing the expected cost. However, the demands of a seasonal product are random and dependent on selling price and advertising cost. With the effect of selling price and advertising cost considered, a Newsvendor model with Conditional ValueatRisk (CVaR) criterion as objective is derived. Based on this model, an optimal marketing strategy is found and the effect of risk aversion on the optimal strategy is analyzed. Examples are used to show the application of the proposed method and the managerial insights. The results are useful for retailers who sell seasonal products.

Key words: Newsvendor model, conditional valueatrisk(CVaR), marketing

李绩才1,2, 周永务2, 肖旦2, 刘哲睿2. CVaR准则下季节性产品市场运作策略[J]. 工业工程, 2012, 15(5): 8-14.

Li Ji-cai1,2, Zhou Yong-wu2, Xiao Dan2, Liu Zhe-rui2. On the Optimal Marketing Strategy for Seasonal Products under the CVaR Criterion[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2012, 15(5): 8-14.

参考文献

［1］Polatolu L. Optimal order quantity and pricing decisions in single-period inventory systems［J］. International Journal of Production Economics, 1991, 23(1-3):175-185.  ［2］Petruzzi N, Dada M. Pricing and the newsvendor problem:A review with extensions［J］. Operations Research, 1999, 47(2):183-194.  ［3］Cachon G. Supply chain coordination with contracts［M］//John RB, Vadim L.Handbooks in operations research and management science. North Holland:Elsevier Science, 2003:229-340.  ［4］周永务, 杨善林. 报童型商品最优广告费用与订货策略的联合确定［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2002,22(11):59-63.  〖DW〗Zhou Yong-wu, Yang Shan-lin. Joint determination of optimal advertisement cost and order policy for newsboy-type-merchandise［J］. Systems EngineeringTheory & Practice, 2002,22(11):59-63. ［5］Khouja M, Robbins S. Linking advertising and quantity decisions in the single-period inventory model［J］. International Journal of Production Economics, 2003, 86(2):93-105.  ［6］熊中楷,彭志强,Yu Xiong.易逝品最优定价、订货量和广告投入的联合确定［J］. 工业工程与管理,2009,14(2):32-37. Xiong Zhong-kai, Peng Zhi-qiang, Yu X.Joint determination of pricing, order quantity and advertising investment for perishable goods［J］. Industrial Engineering and Management,2009,14(2):32-37. ［7］汪峻萍,周永务,杨剑波.需求依赖广告费用和销售价格的Newsboy型产品库存模型［J］. 控制与决策,2010,25(1):89-92. Wang Jun-ping, Zhou Yong-wu, Yang Jian-bo. Inventory model for Newsboy-type products with demand depending on advertising expenditure and selling price［J］. Control and Decision, 2010, 25(1):89-92. ［8］Wang S D, Zhou Y W, Wang J P. Coordinating ordering, pricing and advertising policies for a supply chain with random demand and two production modes［J］. International Journal of Production Economics,2010,126(2):168-180.  ［9］Eeckhoudt L, Gollier C, Schlesinger H. The riskaverse(and prudent) newsboy［J］. Management Science, 1995, 41(5):786-794. ［10］Agrawal V, Seshadri S.Impact of uncertainty and risk aversion on price and order quantity in the newsvendor problem［J］.Manufacturing & Service Operations Management,2000,2(4): 410-423. ［11］Choi T M, Li D, Yan H. Mean-variance analysis of newsvendor problem［J］. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics:Part A, 2008, 38(5):1169-1180.  ［12］Chen X. Risk aversion in inventory management［DB/OL］.［2003-01］.https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/xinchen/www/papers/. ［13］许明辉, 于刚, 张汉勤. 带有缺货惩罚的报童模型中的CVaR研究［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2006,26(10):1-8.  Xu Ming-hui, Yu Gang, Zhang Han-qin. CVaR in a Newsvendor model with lost sale penalty cost［J］. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2006,26(10):1-8. ［14］Chen Y, Xu M, Zhang Z. A risk-averse newsvendor model under the CVaR criterion［J］. Operations Research, 2009, 57(4):1040-1044.  ［15］Rockafellar R T, Uryasev S. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk［J］. Journal of Risk, 2000,2(1):21-42.  ［16］Rockafellar R T, Uryasev S. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions［J］. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2002,26(7):1443-1471.

[1]	李守荣, 张人千. 基于拓展经营的交叉销售产品的订货研究[J]. 工业工程, 2018, 21(2): 19-26.
[2]	李强, 汪传旭. 需求更新条件下零售商双渠道订货策略研究[J]. 工业工程, 2017, 20(5): 15-20.
[3]	林志炳, 周正勇, 吴少雄. 基于策略顾客和网络外部性的零售商预售[J]. 工业工程, 2015, 18(2): 66-72.
[4]	朱传波1，陈畴鏞2，包兴3. 供应中断风险下供应链恢复能力投资决策及协调[J]. 工业工程, 2014, 17(3): 27-32.
[5]	谢勇, 孟楚, 王红卫. 过度自信的报童模型研究[J]. 工业工程, 2013, 16(4): 38-43.
[6]	刘树人1,2，李维2，王娜2. 逆向拍卖采购下的库存与定价联合决策[J]. 工业工程, 2013, 16(1): 99-104.
[7]	朱琳琳，肖人彬. 信息不对称下多供应商与单零售商的退货策略[J]. 工业工程, 2012, 15(5): 92-98.
[8]	谢勇, 向莉, 王红卫, 陈双. 带服务水平和容量约束的扩展报童模型研究[J]. 工业工程, 2012, 15(4): 47-52.
[9]	刘明彦，齐二石，刘亮. 基于策略消费者风险偏好的供应链协调研究[J]. 工业工程, 2012, 15(2): 27-32.