关键词: 机组人为差错严重度分析方法, 灰色综合评价法, 人为差错, 严重度评估

Abstract: Flight crew human error significantly affects the reliability and safety, and is the primary factor that results in accidents/events in aviation industry. A new method of flight crew error analysis (Flight CrewHuman Error Criticality Analysis, FHECA) is developed. It can be used to estimate the human error occurring in cockpit, decrease the error effects of these unexpected behaviors during the flight operational process, and provide valuable means to enhance human reliability and system safety for flight task. Although the existing HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) is able to calculate the probable occurrence of human errors, it fails to identify the potentially critical problems caused by human errors in cockpit. Human error criticality is constructed as the principle for assessment in the proposed method. In evaluating the flight crew error criticality, three independent variables are used. They are the probability of human error, the severity of human error consequence, and the probability of human error effect. The FHECA is integrated with grey synthetic evaluation to solve the problem of nonlinear factor that makes practical application difficult. Then, the classification and framework of flight crew error are technically established for assessing the criticality of error in accident case, which can be used as a prototype to support our approach. The method can be used to analyze the error of flight crew and assess the criticality of error. It also can be used to predict and prevent the flight crew error. Besides, it is beneficial for identifying the important and latent reason in designing standard operation procedure (SOP) when sufficient accidents/events are provided and for flight training and flight operation manual.

Key words: flight crewhuman error criticality analysis, grey synthetic evaluation, human error, criticality evaluation