贝叶斯网络在运营隧道结构风险评估中的应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2019.06.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运营地铁隧道结构风险复杂且影响大，如何高效评估运营地铁隧道结构风险等级，并快速辨识关键致险因素亟待解决。提出了基于模糊多态贝叶斯网络的地铁运营隧道结构风险评估方法。首先阐述了模糊多态贝叶斯网络模型的构建过程，然后根据贝叶斯原理进行地铁运营隧道结构风险因素的概率预测及重要度分析来评估系统风险。最后结合工程实例验证了该方法的适用性，为盾构地铁运营隧道结构的风险预测和防范提供了参考依据。

关键词: 贝叶斯网络, 运营隧道结构, 风险评估, 多态系统

Abstract: The risks of subway tunnel structure in operation are complex and influential. How to efficiently evaluate the risk level of subway tunnel structure in operation and how to quickly identify the key risk factors to ensure the safety of tunnel structure need urgently to be solved. Thus, a risk assessment method based on fuzzy multi-state Bayesian networks is proposed. Firstly, the establishment process of fuzzy multi-state Bayesian network model is expounded. Then, the Bayesian theorem is introduced to predict the probability and analyze the influence factors of operational subway tunnel structure to evaluate the system risks. Finally, a case study is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method which provides a reference for risk prediction and prevention of the tunnel structure of subway.

Key words: Bayesian network, operational tunnel structure, risk assessment, multi-state system

中图分类号:

U25
X913.4

周建国, 徐惠云, 刘飞. 贝叶斯网络在运营隧道结构风险评估中的应用[J]. 工业工程, 2019, 22(6): 103-109.

ZHOU Jianguo, XU Huiyun, LIU Fei. Application of Bayesian Network in Risk Assessment of Operational Tunnel Structure[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2019, 22(6): 103-109.

参考文献

[1] 汤育春, 夏侯遐迩, 陆莹, 等. 中国地铁工程安全风险管理研究综述[J]. 工程管理学报, 2018, 32(6):1-6 TANG Yuchun, XIAHOU Xiaer, LU Ying, et al. State-of-the-art review of safety risk management for subway projects in china[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2018, 32(6):1-6
[2] 洪平, 刘鹏举. 层次分析法在铁路运营隧道健康状态综合评判中的应用[J]. 现代隧道技术, 2011, 48(1):28-32 HONG Ping, LIU Pengju. Application of analytic hierarchy process in comprehensive assessment for health condition of railway tunnels in operatio[J]. Modern Tunnelling Technology, 2011, 48(1):28-32
[3] 贡力, 严松宏. 模糊评价法在铁路运营隧道安全状态综合评判中的应用[J]. 城市道桥与防洪, 2013(1):156-158 GONG Li, YAN Songhong. Application of fuzzy evaluation method in comprehensive evaluation of safety status of railway tunnel under operation[J]. Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control, 2013(1):156-158
[4] 吴贤国, 覃亚伟, 沈梅芳, 等. 基于云推理的运营隧道结构健康安全风险评价研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(2):133-138 WU Xianguo, QIN Yawei, SHEN Meifang, et al. Research on health and safety risk assessment of operational tunnels based on cloud reasoning[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(2):133-138
[5] 黄建华, 杨思, 吴波. 基于贝叶斯网络的基坑围护工程施工风险评估[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2016, 49(5):733-739 HUANG Jianhua, YANG Si, WU Bo. Construction risk assessment of foundation pit engineering based on methods of Bayesian network[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2016, 49(5):733-739
[6] 张姣. 基于贝叶斯网络的地铁盾构隧道工程风险评估方法[J]. 城市轨道交通研究, 2014, 17(3):30-34 ZHANG Jiao. Risk assessment of metro shield tunnel construction based on Bayesian networks[J]. Urban Mass Transit, 2014, 17(3):30-34
[7] 姜洲, 丁保军, 张立茂, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络的运营隧道渗漏水病害风险评估[J]. 环境工程, 2014, 32(S1):922-927 JIANG Zhou, DING Baojun, ZHANG Limao, et al. Risk assessment of the operational tunnel leakage based on Bayesian networks[J]. Environment Engineering, 2014, 32(S1):922-927
[8] 张立茂, 吴贤国, 张文静, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络和证据理论的地铁运营结构健康风险评价[J]. 铁道标准设计, 2018, 62(12):105-111 ZHANG Limao, WU Xianguo, ZHANG Wenjing, et al. Subway structural health risk assessment based on Bayesian networks and D-S theory[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2018, 62(12):105-111
[9] 项琴, 李远富, 朱宏伟. 基于模糊贝叶斯网络的山区高速铁路桥梁运营风险评估[J]. 铁道标准设计, 2014, 58(11):76-80 XIANG Qin, LI Yuanfu, ZHU Hongwei. Operation risk assessment of high -speed railway bridges in mountainous area Based on fuzzy Bayesian[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2014, 58(11):76-80
[10] QIU G Q, HUANG S, ZHU L L, et al. Risk assessment of multi-state Bayesian network in an oil gathering and transferring system[J]. Procedia Enginnering, 2015, 130:1514-1523
[11] 杨艳青. 运营隧道健康诊断及剩余寿命评估研究[D]. 北京:北京交通大学, 2012. YANG Yanqing.Study on health diagnosis and evaluation of residual life for the operation tunnel[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University, 2012.
[12] 周健, 王红卫, 吴邵海. 盾构法施工风险的多态贝叶斯网络模型分析[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 41(2):186-190 ZHOU Jian, WANG Hongwei, WU Shaohai. Risk analysis of shield construction by polymorphic Bayesian networks model[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science), 2013, 41(2):186-190
[13] 中华人民共和国铁道部. 铁路运营隧道衬砌安全等级评定暂行规定[S]. 北京:中国铁道出版社, 2004.
[14] 中华人民共和国铁道部. TB/T2820.2-1997, 铁路桥隧建筑物劣化评定标准-隧道[S]. 北京:铁道部标准计量研究所, 1998.
[15] 国家铁路局. TB10003-2016, 铁路隧道设计规范[S].北京:中国铁道出版社, 2017.
[16] 吴剑飞. 运营病害隧道健康状态评估[D]. 成都:西南交通大学, 2017. WU Jianfei. Health-condition assessment of highway tunnel[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University, 2017.
[17] 刘洋. 运营隧道结构健康安全评价[D]. 武汉:华中科技大学, 2015. LIU Yang. Structure health and safety assesment of operational tunnel[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2015.
[18] 蔡鹏超. 北京地铁运营隧道衬砌病害分类及其安全状态分级研究[D]. 北京:北京交通大学, 2017. CAI Pengchao. Lining diseases classification and safety status grading research of beijing subway tunnels[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University, 2017.
[19] 陈鹏. 运营隧道衬砌安全评价方法研究[D]. 成都:西南交通大学. CHEN Peng. Study on safety evaluation method of operating tunnel lining[D]. Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University, 2018.
[20] WEBER P, JOUFFE L. Complex system reliability modelling with dynamic object oriented bayesian networks (DOOBN)[J]. Reliability Engineering &System Safety, 2007, 92(10):1413-1420
[21] 陈东宁, 姚成玉. 基于模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析及在液压系统中的应用[J]. 机械工程学报, 2012, 48(16):175-183 CHEN Dongning, YAO Chengyu. Reliability analysis of multi-state system based on fuzzy Bayesian networks and application in hydraulic system[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2012, 48(16):175-183
[22] 戚珩, 李光, 姜晨, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络的复杂系统多态可靠性分析[J]. 现代制造工程, 2014(1):92-96 QI Heng, LI Guang, JIANG Chen, et al. Reliability analysis of multi-state system based on Bayesian networks[J]. Modern Manufacturing Engineering, 2014(1):92-96