Infection Process of Airport Flight Area Human Risk Based on SEIRS Epidemic Disease Model

Abstract

Abstract:

Infectious process model of airport flight area human risk is constructed based on SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) epidemic disease model for risk management and control in a more scientific and rational way. The assumptions of the model are defined. The equilibrium point and stability of the model are analyzed. The model is asymptotically stable at the equilibrium point. Model simulation results by Matlab software shows that latent group, infected group and immune group all finally tend to zero balance no matter in the early stage, the middle stage or the late stage of the risk of infection. Latent group shows a relatively smooth decreasing trend. Infected group tends to zero balance after rapid decline. Immune population has a rapid growth in the short term after the rapid decline. There is a significant difference in the rate of change of different groups at different stages. Latent group shows a slow upward trend till zero balance after the rapid decline in the last stage. The conclusion provides the theoretical basis for the strategic focus of different stages of risk management and control.

Key words: human risk, risk infection, airport flight area, epidemic disease model

TANG Xinxin，LUO Fan. Infection Process of Airport Flight Area Human Risk Based on SEIRS Epidemic Disease Model[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal .

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