A Research on Reliability of Express Delivery System Based on Bayesian-GO Method

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.2019.04.005

Abstract

Abstract: A Bayesian-GO integrated method is proposed to analyze the reliability of express delivery system. Firstly, the distribution workflow and its influencing factors are analyzed in detail considering the requirements of time, quality and service reliability of the distribution system comprehensively, and the GO map is established. Then according to the mapping rules, it is converted into Bayesian network. Finally, through the actual case analysis, Bayesian network forward and backward reasoning and sensitivity analysis are used to obtain the weak links of the system and its main influencing factors. The results show that the Bayesian-GO synthesis method overcomes the shortcomings of the complicated operation of the GO method alone, and can quickly find the weak link of the express delivery system and its main influencing factors. Among them, the failure rate of the receiving subsystem is the highest. The damage and loss of the mail and time reliability are the main influencing factors.

Key words: logistics engineering, reliability, Bayesian-GO method, distribution, express

CLC Number:

U125
U121

BAI Xiaoping, LIU Bingfang. A Research on Reliability of Express Delivery System Based on Bayesian-GO Method[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2019, 22(4): 23-30,48.

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