Abstract: Considering decision-makers overestimate consumers' sensitivity to product greenness and the accuracy of uncertainty in product demand, a study is conducted on the impact of decision-makers' overconfidence on product greenness, product pricing and supply chain member profit in a dual-channel green supply chain. Based on game theory, a dual channel supply chain decision-making model is constructed under the three situations: both the manufacturer and the retailer are overconfident under centralized decision-making, only the retailer is overconfident under decentralized decision-making and only the manufacturer is overconfident under decentralized decision-making, and draws a conclusion through optimization solution and simulation analysis. The results show that, the retailer's overconfidence leads to a decline in product greenness, wholesale price, direct-sale channel retail price and manufacturer's profit, while the change of retailer's profit and retail price are related to retail channel market share; the manufacturer's overconfidence leads to the increase of product greenness, wholesale price, retail price of two channels and manufacturer's profit, while the retailer's profit increases first and then decreases with the manufacturer's overconfidence.

Key words: overconfidence, green supply chain, dual-channel, product greenness