基于捕食者—猎物模型的突发事件下供应链稳定性研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7375.e17-3135

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 供应链稳定性已成为供应链风险管理的重要研究领域。为了剖析突发事件与供应链系统之间的互动机理，本文将捕食者—猎物模型应用于突发事件与供应链系统稳定性研究中。论文首先基于供应链弹性系数与突发事件干扰系数构建了突发事件与供应链系统的捕食者—猎物模型。模型中的两个动态微分方程分别代表突发事件和供应链系统的状态。之后求解模型的平衡点，并应用Matlab对系统平衡点P₂与P₄下突发事件与供应链稳定性之间的关系进行仿真分析。结果表明，为保证供应链稳定，当达到P₄平衡点时，应使供应链弹性系数σ₁> 1且趋于2，而突发事件干扰系数σ₂> 1且逐渐趋于1。当达到P₂平衡点时，应使供应链弹性系数σ₁> 0且趋于2，而突发事件干扰系数0< σ₂< 1，且逐渐趋于0。该模型可以有效地捕捉、表征突发事件与供应链系统状态之间的关系，为研究突发事件下供应链稳定性提供了全新思路，对于丰富供应链突发事件建模方法，有效预防和应对供应链突发事件具有重要意义。

关键词: 突发事件, 供应链, 稳定性, 捕食者—猎物模型

Abstract: Stability of the supply chain has become an important research area in supply chain. To study the interactive mechanism between disruption and supply chain, a Predator-Prey Model of disruption and supply chain is built based on supply chain resilience coefficient and disruption interference coefficient, representing the two states of disruptions and supply chain. Then the equilibrium points are found and interdependent correlation of disruption and supply chain is analyzed, and the stability of supply chain under disruption simulated by Matlab. The results show that, in order to ensure the stability of the supply chain when the equilibrium point P₄ is reached, the resilience coefficient of the supply chain should be σ₁> 1 and approaching 2, and the disturbance coefficient of the disruption should be σ₂> 1 and gradually approaching 1. When the equilibrium point P₂ is reached, the resilience coefficient of the supply chain should be σ₁> 0 and approaching 2, and the disturbance coefficient of the disruption should be 0< σ₂< 1 and gradually approaching 0. The model is effective to formulate the interdependent correlation between disruption and the stability of supply chain. The exploration is meaningful to enrich the modeling methodology of supply chain disruption, and it is also significant to prevent and handle the disruption effectively.

Key words: disruption, supply chain, stability, Predator-Prey Model

中图分类号:

N949

胡卉, 马海, 李博, 赵姣. 基于捕食者—猎物模型的突发事件下供应链稳定性研究[J]. 工业工程, 2017, 20(6): 39-46.

HU Hui, MA Hai, LI Bo, ZHAO Jiao. A Study of the Stability of Supply Chain with Predator-Prey Model[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal , 2017, 20(6): 39-46.

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