Medical Resources Allocation Based on System Dynamics Simulation

Abstract

Abstract:

A system dynamics-based simulation model is proposed while we are trying to allocate medical resources efficiently between regular patients and emergent patients when a large-scale emergent incident happens. In this model, time dependent health condition of patients, medical staff’s diagnostic decision and confidence, and Bayesian prediction distribution based assessment duration in each service station and emergent patients’ arrival intervals are considered. In order to evaluate different medical resources allocation scenarios, a comprehensive performance indicator taking into account death rate and patients’ average stay in system is provided. In the simulation experiment, a comparison is made among the three resources allocation rules in different system scenes and the one based on patient scale is proved to be better than the other two rules, which provides efficient reference for hospitals to make emergency medical resources allocation decision and contingency plan.

Key words: system dynamics, medical emergency, resources allocation, Bayesian prediction distribution

HE Guoguang1，2, LI Shugang1. Medical Resources Allocation Based on System Dynamics Simulation[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal .

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